The world is facing a growing challenge: childhood and adolescent obesity. While we know the serious health risks linked to excess weight, both immediately and later in life, we haven’t done enough to address this problem on a global scale. Inconsistent data collection and reporting make it harder to set specific targets, allocate resources effectively, and develop impactful interventions. Let’s explore what’s happening and what we can expect in the future.

A recent study, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, analyzed a vast amount of data – over 1,300 sources from 180 countries and territories – to understand trends in childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity. This data included both measured and self-reported height and weight information from surveys, reports, and published research. The study covered the period from 1990 to 2021 and then projected these trends forward to 2050.

Here’s a breakdown of the key findings:

• A Concerning Rise: Between 1990 and 2021, the combined rate of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents doubled, while the rate of obesity alone tripled.
• Millions Affected: By 2021, a staggering 93 million children aged 5-14 and 80 million individuals aged 15-24 were living with obesity.
• Regional Hotspots: North Africa and the Middle East had the highest rates of both overweight and obesity in 2021, with countries like the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait standing out. The most dramatic increases between 1990 and 2021 occurred in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, including countries like Taiwan, the Maldives, and China.
• Shifting Predominance: By 2021, many countries in Australasia (like Australia) and high-income North America (like Canada) saw obesity becoming more common than overweight among females in both age groups. This was also true for both males and females in several countries in north Africa, the Middle East, and Oceania.

Looking ahead, the projections to 2050 paint a concerning picture:

• Stabilizing Overweight, Rising Obesity: Global overweight rates are projected to level off, but the sheer number of people living with obesity is expected to continue to rise significantly, even more than it did between 1990 and 2021. The period between 2022 and 2030 is predicted to see especially rapid increases.
• Future Hotspots: North Africa and the Middle East are projected to continue having the highest obesity rates, with significant increases also expected in southeast Asia, east Asia, Oceania, and south Asia.
• Obesity Becoming the Norm: By 2050, in most regions (except Latin America, the Caribbean, and high-income regions), obesity is projected to be more common than overweight among children aged 5-14. Globally, about 15.6% of 5-14 year olds are projected to have obesity by 2050, representing a staggering 186 million children.

The study highlights a critical need for immediate action. The fact that overweight and obesity rates increased so drastically between 1990 and 2021 suggests that current strategies aren’t working. We need new, more effective approaches to address this growing crisis and protect the health of future generations. The predicted surge in obesity between now and 2030 makes it even more urgent to act now. This is a complex challenge that will require global cooperation and innovative solutions.